Actuarial Science & Software

Reserving, engineered to be trusted.

We are actuarial scientists and software engineers. We build GRID, our reserving product line, and design custom systems for insurance and financial businesses that need more than off-the-shelf software.

Our expertise Explore GRID →

A DEVELOPMENT TRIANGLE — THE CORE OBJECT OF CLAIMS RESERVING

Expertise

Actuarial science & Software engineering is our foundation

Everything we build starts from research. Our team works across data analytics, machine learning, econometrics, finance and actuarial science, developing reserving methods in partnership with academic researchers — then engineering them into software people actually use.

Research background

A multidisciplinary team with a foundation in academic research, not just software delivery — our methods are developed and continuously evolved with university partners.

Technical background

Cutting-edge engineering to match: custom web and desktop development, data processing, security and visualization, built on modern, modular architecture.

Stochastic Claims Reserving

Advanced, research-grade reserving methodology — beyond standard chain-ladder approaches — validated against dozens of alternative models.

Claims Survey Management

Systems that track the full lifecycle of a claim survey for B2B insurance surveyors, from assignment to resolution.

Telematics & Driver Scoring

Machine learning models applied to telematics data for driver risk scoring and pricing support.

Digital Financial Advice

Online financial advice platforms and smart digital communication for long-term savings products.

Products

GRID: our reserving product line

Online, web-based reserving software built specifically for non-life insurance, developed by actuarial researchers and engineered for production use.

Live product

GRID DCL

GRID DCL is built on the Double Chain Ladder method, giving full tail estimates and splitting the reserve into IBNR and RBNS cashflows. It also draws on the latest available RBNS data as prior knowledge, sharpening the estimate as new information comes in.

Double Chain Ladder Tail estimation IBNR / RBNS split RBNS as prior knowledge Calendar effects Validation Sparse data handling Smoothing Bornhuetter-Ferguson Forward Factors

Visit GRID DCL →

In development

GRID One Triangle

GRID One Triangle stays close to the classic chain ladder method, while adding a set of practical extensions on top: calendar-effect detection, validation against alternative methods, handling for sparse data, and smoothing.

Classic chain ladder Forward Factors Calendar effects Validation Sparse data handling Smoothing Bornhuetter-Ferguson

Coming soon

Development

What we've been working on

A running view into GRID's development — what's active right now, what just shipped, and what's coming next.

Current

Operational Time Detection

Operational time — a shift in a portfolio's reporting or settlement speed over time — can distort development patterns if left untreated. We're developing an algorithm to detect whether a dataset exhibits operational time and quantify its magnitude, so it can be corrected for when the effect is significant. Expected November 2026.

Latest

Smoothing

Our original method produces a constant, taken as the average of the most recent selected number of mean cost per claim or payment values. Our new method instead fits a linear regression across those same recent values, producing a trend line rather than a flat constant. The two methods are closely related to local constant and local linear smoothing, respectively, but are formulated in a more intuitive way. Optimal smoothing method is picked via validation.

Top-Down Aggregation Across Business Lines

A top-down approach to reserving across multiple business lines: first aggregate several triangles, calculate the reserve for the combined dataset, then allocate that reserve back to each individual business line. Among other benefits, this can reduce the impact of extreme values, provide a clearer understanding of uncertainty, and improve operational efficiency through a coherent portfolio-level analysis. Expected summer 2027.

View the full development log →

Custom Solutions

Bespoke systems, built and maintained

Beyond GRID, we design and maintain custom software for clients whose problems don't fit an off-the-shelf product — from first specification through years of ongoing support. Across our development process, we also use AI-assisted tools to accelerate delivery and help validate code quality, while keeping engineering judgment and final review with our team.

Integration

Upgrade what you have

We take the time to understand your existing setup and workflows, then consult on integrating it with our systems and methodology.

Specification

Built to your requirements

A thorough specification process, with you closely involved throughout, so what we build matches your exact requirements and end users.

Support

Maintained long-term

Extensive maintenance and support on everything we build, on an annual or on-demand basis — these are ongoing relationships, not one-off projects.

Ongoing custom engagements

Claims survey management for a B2B insurance surveyor — Cyprus

Online financial advice platform — Denmark

About Us

What makes us different

We have a strong background both as academic researchers and as technology providers — few teams sit in both worlds. That combination is why our methods hold up to scrutiny and our software holds up in production.

Who we work with

Clients of Emergent Systems include national companies in Cyprus and international companies across the UK, Denmark and Greece — spanning both our GRID product line and custom-built systems.

Where we work

CyprusUnited KingdomDenmarkGreece

Key members

Jens Perch Nielsen

Co-Founder / CEO

Originates GRID's core algorithms — the mathematics, statistics, and stochastics behind our reserving and pricing — then pressure-tests and accelerates development through the academic network he's built as Professor of Actuarial Science at Bayes Business School.

Odysseas Efstathiou

Product Owner & Technology Director

Shapes product direction across GRID — workflow, screen design, and what data and output surface where — while also leading engineering delivery across GRID and custom systems.

Demetris Leptos

Software Architect

Works across every level, from system architecture down to the low-level code itself, chasing the best solution wherever it lives — for GRID, custom solutions, and the specialized tools he builds along the way.

Contact

Get in touch

Whether it's about GRID, a custom engagement, or just a question about our methodology — we'd like to hear from you.

Call

+357 25 256395

info@emergent-systems.com

Visit

139A, Gladstonos, 1st floor, 3032 Limassol, Cyprus